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Posts Tagged ‘Globalisation’

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What is The Good Society?

In Uncategorized on May 13, 2026 at 1:19 pm

Guest talk delivered to Carlisle Reform Party Members Meeting, at Carlisle United Football Club, Carlisle, United Kingdom, 14th April 2026:

THE SHORT ANSWER to this important question is: A free society, where you and I can be ‘at home’. Two words we skip past very easily, freedom and home. But both are central to the project known as ‘British’. For Britishness must be a shared endeavour to secure the values of a free society. Where you and I can be ‘at home’.

“[Britain] laid the foundations of law, liberty, free speech, and individual rights virtually everywhere the Union Jack has ever flown,” offered Donald Trump, on the 17th September 2025, during his state visit to Britain. A man of discernment after all?

The question then for government is how it discharges its responsibilities to enable a free society.

Roger Scruton writes: “Marxist history means rewriting history with class at the top of the agenda… Class is an attractive idea for left-wing historians because it denotes a thing that divides us…

Nation, law, faith, tradition, sovereignty – these ideas by contrast denote things that unite us.”

The post-war consensus of a mixed economy created a confused social model, a hybrid of Marxist and conservative visions. This ended and we started on the road to Thatcher’s, then Blair-Brown’s, governance by unrestrained global markets.

As John Gray says: “Liberalism has once again become a creature eating its own tail…

(I should point out that in America liberal means socialist, and in the UK it means free markets.)

…liberals (socialists) denouncing the West as the most destructive force in history… [whilst insisting] Western values… human rights, personal autonomy… must be projected to the last corners of the Earth.” A religious belief that socialism and free markets have our best interests at heart. The Thatcher/Blair consensus is ending now with pressure to move towards economic nationalism. That is, to withdraw from dependence on cheap imports.

But back to the ideas of freedom and home.  

Home is where life is lived. Home is the place we learn our ‘obligations and duties’. We enter any space to discover we are naturally obliged: Loyalty, hospitality, family, and community. Once we spot our obligations, we feel the weight of our duty to take care of each other.

A teenager in the West has infinite choices, and experiences angst as a result. They become an adult by recognising their obligations and duties. By sacrificing our infinite teenage choices, choosing one partner, for life, committing to work, and serving each other we grow up into maturity.

But what an unrestrained global market says is you can have infinite choices forever, and need to make few commitments, as capital, that is money or any resource capable of making more resource, will set you free from obligations and duties. This is known as extreme liberalism. Or the cult of choice.

And Western institutions have aided and abetted infantilising modern liberal democratic citizens to be childlike consumers in the candy store of choice. The ‘We Generation’ has been replaced by the ‘Me Generation’. It is little wonder other societies struggle to respect the West and its ‘way of life’ as it has turned out under extreme liberalism.

David Goodhart’s writing spots the frailty of the Blair-Brown government’s market vision. To send 50% of our young people to university he says is emotionally illiterate. It is an investment in the head, not the heart. The point of education is to turn out courageous people with a vision for building their settlement. Not to become selfish and isolated, unrooted.

The Western model is rooted in privileging the heart above the head, and our faithfulness to home and family. We have lost our way. The path back is mapped out for us. It starts with a heart to tell the truth. An obligation. And then the duty to accept the brutal losses that telling the truth will bring. To think with our hearts.

Learning to fail through telling the truth is where early maturity turns into powerful leadership. Once we’ve absorbed the losses of truth, where else does it lead? To trust. And trust is the basis of civil society, or what we call free association. The great growth of British business, charity and civil society, the model that transformed the modern world, is rooted in the concept of trust.

As we have found over the centuries freedom is costly and fragile. For nearly fifty years our sovereign freedom was handed over to a bureaucratic monster, the European Union. Now, Keir Starmer wants us to realign to EU regulations. The iron cage of Brussels bureaucracy is being wielded again by a visionless anti-democratic administrative class.

And Britishness is disinterested, not uninterested, but disinterested, in what you call yourself, how you dress. Becoming or transitioning is a human necessity. We all do it. Banning the burqa is not British. It is petty legalism. Only a tragic society regulates clothing. The politics of resentment and grievance divides. As America has found.

But Britishness is interested in the unrestrained “capitalism [that] concentrates wealth and power in even smaller sections of society, university professors, media figures, lawyers, charity workers, community activists and officers in non-government organisations…”, as John Gray writes. This power means vulnerable human identity conforms to this narrow elite’s shaky self-serving desire to be ‘society’s guardians’. 

In 1974 Prime Minister Ted Heath, another plodding technocrat, during another energy crisis, famously asked in so many words: ‘Who governs Britain?’. Not you! Came the reply. In a television broadcast to the nation on 7th February, 1974, shortly after announcing that February’s general election, he said something which is real again: “The issue before you is a simple one. As a country, we face grave problems at home and abroad. Do you want a strong government which has clear authority for the future to take the decisions which will be needed?”

In other words people do not want government by EU committee or unrestrained markets. The British people want their parliament to govern. Where the words: I am a British citizen, civis Britannicus sum, really does mean something.

If you go back only a hundred years it was possible to live beyond the reach of government. No CCTV, or even passports. The historian A.J.P. Taylor in his Oxford English History said: “Until August 1914 a sensible, law-abiding Englishman could pass through life and hardly notice the existence of the state beyond the post office and the policeman… All this was changed by the impact of the Great War… The state established a hold over its citizens which though relaxed in peace time, was never to be removed and which the Second World War was again to increase. The history of the English people and the English State merged for the first time”.

And now the Labour government wishes to track you through digital ID surveillance. Are they mad? I think so.

If we look across the pond we see some large red flags. The US is tearing itself apart, between ‘conservatives and liberals, reactionaries and progressives’. It has an unbending two-party system.  Theirs, like most modern liberal democracies, has coded its constitution as sovereign, where here in the UK, parliament reigns supreme, with its multi-party system.

By not chiseling a codified constitution into vulnerable school children’s brains it allows us to swim out into the sea of our long history. The Magna Carta (1215), the Bill of Rights (1689), and the Acts of Union (1707) all soak into parliamentary debate plus our bones, and pub quizzes.

We retain priests and princes in our landscape, for good and ill, as they filter and divert us before any rush to a supreme court to wield the law as an axe above the heads of parliamentarians. The Blair-Brown government’s efforts to install a continental system of government by technical expert committee and a politicised civil service has strained communities who have felt their franchise weakened. In other words European style managerialism, perfectly illustrated by our current Prime Minister, is one of the many threats to The Good Society.

MP and father of conservative politics, Edmund Burke, describes in his speech to the electors of Bristol in 1774 what has become the classic statement of the relationship between Members of Parliament and their constituents:

“To deliver an opinion, is the right of all men… [but] Parliament is not a Congress of Ambassadors from different and hostile interests… Parliament is a deliberative Assembly of one Nation, with one Interest… the general Good, resulting from the general Reason of the whole.”

In other words, and this sounds odd to our ears, an MP is to give his or her best judgement on what is good and right for the whole nation. Opinions are subordinate to ‘the good’.

America this week is feeling the limits of its power. Where the British Empire exported modern liberal democracy by staying and building physical infrastructure, such as railways, banking systems, schools; I can go on, so will, rule of law, trading systems, democratic governance, ports and harbours, telegraph and communication, urban infrastructure, administrative buildings, water management. I will stop. America has shown it cannot install regime change by blowing things up. We the British built from the ground up. Building from the ground up is the only governance mentality that sustains. Rooted. Building that which is meant to last. Home!

And, it turns out Thatcher was no conservative. She had read the free market economist Friedrich Hayek as her guiding light. A common story told is Thatcher thumped down a copy of Hayek’s book The Constitution of Liberty on the table at a 1975 Cabinet Meeting, claiming to her colleagues: “This is what we believe!”. The fable continues that she was not a great reader, and did not get to the end of this book, as the postscript is entitled  “Why I am Not a Conservative”.

America’s soft power has been much greater than Britain’s hard power. Coca-Colanisation brought down the Berlin Wall. The cult of choice as an output of modern liberal democracy has been irresistible. America exported British modernity after the Second World War, but in the last 19 years we have seen democratic recession, a debt crisis and Western systems as frail. In particular Western legitimacy, that is the power to influence through building trust and the faithful application of a rules-based order, has been eroded by what American writer Normal Mailer would say is: Plastic capitalism, ‘where even the molecules in its plastic furniture are persecuted’.

But as America falters and is no longer a model society, the British system looks increasingly grounded in a deep and enduring parliamentary system that developed after the Protestant Reformation. And a civil war, which was a revolution that took place 150 years before the French got round to theirs.

I put to you that we are an achieved society because of a complex and difficult history. And we might argue that our tolerant, largely peaceable and functioning settlements, like Carlisle, were only possible through centuries of development. On our foreign summer hols, struggling to find somewhere to go to the loo, or narrowly avoiding dropping to our death from a jerrybuilt beachfront path, we often return to functioning towns and cities and note the care that built them. Albeit slowly and at excess cost. So, any impulse to overthrow our settlement by those on the far-left appears reckless.

Where the English Civil War sought to settle a domestic dispute between parliament and the king, the French overturned their entire system, based on ideological zeal for a transformed Europe. They have had 12-15 different forms of regime since then, the British just one. For the eighty years after the French Revolution a different regime appeared approximately every nine years.

The French capitulated in the face of the German advance in 1940, because, in one view, it was a ‘fatally divided and demoralised’ as a nation. Aside from ‘bad intelligence and bad tactics’ on the battlefield ‘France [was] much more divided than Britain in the mid-1930s’.

What creates ‘patriotic solidarity’ has deep roots not in nationalism or ideology, but in the settlement, in our dwelling place. In our home. And, in this odd and anaemic term: Civil society. That is the bonds and behaviour that enable people to say: Here, I am at home. Where ‘Continental Europe is based on an idea of nationhood’ we here are ‘bound together by our residence in a particular place’.

The European Union was an extension of that ideological French zeal. In the Gothic structures of cathedrals across Europe these buildings trace beauty and nature down to the created world, its clusters of columns mimicking a forest, which is particular, located, a place. A carved leaf here, a knowing gargoyle there. Where national governance systems look to utopian idealism, we found our reason in the roots of a natured and created world, where truth sits stubbornly replicating its beauty. British judges search the facts of each individual case, as we believe in common law. Common to all. Not grand constitutional law.

What does our slow change system achieve? Largely the ability to absorb pressures from upheavals such as industrialisation and protest and loss of empire. Where French regimes fell under these pressures, the British introduced reforms. But importantly slow change gives legitimacy to its institutions, achieving trust and cooperation from citizens.

It is this growing, if not sudden, realisation that we have something not just remarkable, but exceptional, and Britain’s political furniture must move to protect it. 

We took the head off Charles I somewhat by accident, but our fervour for parliamentary democracy over despotism maps all the way back to the New Testament. For the only freedom the world has is traceable back to the foundations of the Christian story.  

No amount of BBC communitarianism or narrative that romanticises the Greek and Roman pagan world will eliminate the fact that there was no freedom in the classical world. Nothing. Not a jot. The abomination that was slavery was defeated by a Protestant conscience weighing heavy on British foreign ministers at night, as they contemplated their eternities.

Catholicism was a political movement then just as Islam is today. But the challenge of Islam to us of course is to ask: So, what do we here in the West believe? If it is pale wishy washy multiculturalism then the totalising force that is Islam will find it wanting. The good society is one then, that knows what it believes. And it cannot be an imitation of past achievements. We are a society that gathers around a Protestant governance system.

Immanuel Kant, the German philosopher puts it: “The means employed by Nature to bring about the development of all the capacities of men is their antagonism in society… By “antagonism” I mean the unsocial sociability of men…”.

Kant saw our Western inheritance as a freedom, reason and a truth that is found in nature. Antagonistic, competitive and collaborative. Finding a natural ecosystem, the tree grows in balance with the squirrel and the river. Not like socialism, standing shoulder to shoulder in fake solidarity, where, as George Orwell puts it, we are slave to a single party and ideology. That is a return to the tribe.

Our system over the centuries was to stand face to face, as unsocially sociable, as Kant puts it. Cousin marriage is less about biological variation, but where we place our loyalties. To home or tribe.

This means the alien can come to our home, with their family, and we are free to be antagonistic. To insult each other as we stand face to face and act naturally [with a smile, in loving kindness, and a view to partnership through friendship: Koinonia]. Like our nature dictates. Armed with the load bearing belief system of the Latin West: Forgiveness and repentance. I will challenge you, and if I am wrong I will seek your forgiveness.

The home is something quite unique to our Western inheritance. The Latin Western church gradually shifted the idea of family from the pagan tribe to the Christian family. The ‘we’ of society came to form around the church. Yes, Christ died for all, but his church was to be rooted in the concept of the family as its base unit of transformation. Up close and personal.

For European social policy, from the 1950s, the family was the site of torment, so should be easily escapable. Of course it is a place of torment, but for the British it is the place we stay in and build. Home. Our place of formation.

Historian Tom Holland writes: “The Church, in its determination to place married couples… at the heart of a properly Christian society had tamed the instinct of grasping dynasts to pair off cousins with cousins… Husbands, wives, children: it was these, in the heartlands of the Latin West, that were increasingly coming to count as family”. Previously your slaves, dependents, and hangers-on counted as family.

Now, your husband’s or wife’s parents were sanctioned by the Church’s new canon law, to be your mother and father ‘in-law’. The power of feudal Europe, with its clans trying to stitch power together via cousin marriage was broken, by the Church.

Margaret Thatcher, in her infamous interview in Woman’s Own magazine in 1987, stated: “There is no such thing as society”. What was she saying? It was interpreted at the time that she was heartless. A cold capitalist. The press mischievously ignored her other words: “There are individual men and women, and there are families, and no government can do anything except through people, and people must look to themselves first”.

She was saying that society as a whole has no agency. You cannot go to ‘society’. Paradoxically, this was a grimmer statement than the first. She was a cold capitalist. The double income household, where government has more people to tax, and property owners, whose properties require two salaries to afford, has not meant families are better off.

I am not so foolish to propose women stay at home. But the option for both parents to go out to work was billed as liberation, but is now a necessity. Burnout, excessive commuting hours, childcare costs, monstrous mortgage payments, have helped generate what some call a Polycrisis. Overworked parents have lost their leisure time. Time that would have been invested in community voluntary work, building community cohesion. Home.

Thatcher turned out to be a neoliberal. A believer in cold capitalism. That people are purely motivated, as Karl Marx believed, by material gain. More attuned to Marx’s shaping of a liberal Europeanness than she knew herself. The EU was a project of globalisation. A socialist and internationalist project. As Blair put it to the Chicago Economic Club at the time of the Kosovo War: “We are all internationalists now, whether we like it or not”.

A curious trio then. Marx, Thatcher, Blair. Marx saw a large state. Thatcher and Blair, an even larger state. Britain has been under pressure from European social policy since the fifties to adopt the European social contract. Better known as meritocracy.

In revolutionary Europe and America, a rights meritocracy has created an unsustainable inheritocracy. Owners of capital can buy their way into the top universities and professional careers.  Property values have rocketed, and with it a new mass class of millionaires. Others who could not secure property are now the new Precariat. Property is out of reach unless you graduate into a graduate career, or have parents who are ‘meritocracy winners’. After five to ten years following graduation some 30% of graduates are still in non-graduate jobs.

Institutions, clubs, guilds, churches, like Carlisle United Football Club, are agents of civil society, so too political parties. And what is civil society? It is free association. The ability to gather, as we are here, untroubled largely by spying neighbours or agents of the state.

So The Good Society is the sum of the intuitions of those who gather as belonging to a particular place. To belong of course is to stay and build.

Again, as David Goodhart writes, this is then the Somewhere people. Heart people. We belong in this place. The heart thinks better than the head.

The good society thinks with its collective hearts. My wife and I have, like many, have welcomed Iranian and Afghan immigrants into our home. Fed them. Listened to their stories. And got to know them. And shared our Christian faith with them. Do we believe, like Marx, that they are purely motivated by material gain? That they cannot be converted through the good news of the Christian gospel by demonstrating Christian leadership values.

We should of course return efficiently and quickly all those who do not wish to build a safe home. And home here in the good society is built on unchanging values of freedom. Britain has a role in the world again. For its parliament and people to build a good society that is the envy of the world. We have a remarkable opportunity to lead by example. No longer powerful but influential. We should embrace post-Brexit autonomy, strong leadership in communities, applying the law, reject progressive ideologies as a liberal fantasy, and recognise economic reality of new technologies, the environment and financial factors.

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Global leadership opinion: Searching for virtues in the US administration’s New World Order

In Uncategorized on March 24, 2025 at 12:52 pm

WHEN YOU DRIVE INTO CANADA from New York State, USA there is a sense of coming home for the English traveller. Food portions are saner, grass greener, and they say ‘sorry’ nearly as much. Despite the US government’s desire to despoil Canada, I could easily be an American. Half the English spirit is spent coping with the British Isles’ maritime climate, whereas huge bright US skies make Americans admirably engaged, leaning-in, sometimes where they should. As Martin Amis says of the English, ‘If their long-lost cousin became a world-famous author and held a book-signing event next door, the English will say: ‘I might pop my head round the door, but then again…’’

The Great Plains MAGA voter propelling the new US administration’s economic nationalism, has both a grasp of their country’s constitution, and of what might be ‘the good society’. These instincts have called time on what they perceive as an opaque global system. One that extracts value from honest-sweated-labour, and pours it into snake-oil-capital-markets that fail to produce much of tangible value.

The typical American family’s relative decline in income and wealth, against a multiplying super-rich, are structural inequalities stretching back to the 1970s, and these sit at the root of American discontents. With Peter Turchin offering that where serious political candidates have failed, those prepared to “channel… popular discontent” in the most outlandish way, succeed. It is a bonus to MAGA’s grassroots that the Trump-Vance team’s ascent to power appears free from ‘shadowy-conspiracy’ and the forces of a coercive corporate-lobby. The plutocratic nature of US power is somehow overlooked for the moment.

By contrast the heartland British provincial voter has no working knowledge of their constitution, nor can they spell out any version of ‘the good society’, largely through disinterest (a survival posture). Instead, they trust their instincts (as does everybody in the final analysis). And it was the gut-led-British voter who called time on the European Union. This supranational value system could not be weighed or measured in plain sight, and bog-standard-gut-ethics doomed it to history.

This societal battle between the nomadic-world-citizen’s blind trust of market-led client-politics, and the heartland settlers’ stay-and-build commitment, was no more visible than when President Zelenskyy, in barrack-room sans-culottes, met the New World Order in the Oval Office.

One target of this reality TV moment was the liberal progressive Euro-politician. Who is now awake, and talking. The message: your defence shield has expired. American presidents have been trying and failing for fifty years to get Europe to fund its own security. Overnight the Trump-Vance administration has EU leaders committing nearly a trillion Euros on infrastructure and defence. Some going.

American pragmatism has called out Europe, which, in its moral flummery, has not stood up to Russia. It has been buying Russian oil and back-door-exporting through Central Asian states. The MAGA farmer says ‘why should I fund Euro-duplicity?’. The American heartland voter does not believe in a globalised rules-based institutional leadership. Institutions are client-politicians’ agents also, they say.

It may of course still go extremely badly for Ukraine. That the Russian war-tractor will hit full-smoke-spewing-tilt and cannot be stopped, spluttering towards Kyiv in a re-run of Saigon in 1975. But for the Trump-Vance administration to, in the parlance, ‘monster’ Ukraine’s president in the Oval Office is a reversal of principled politics. As Dag Hammarskjöld, UN secretary-general from 1953-61, put it: “Apparently easy successes with the public are possible for a juggler, but lasting results are achieved only by the patient builder.”

But, after decades of the principled global statesman and woman, and their celebrated grand servanthood, many sense these globocrats were not alert to their own complicity in letting the West drift into shallow commercial interest. And to even let it sail its gunboats unwittingly up to the front door of a wounded Russia, whose natural sense of pride makes it recoil. America’s Monroe Doctrine has no truck with foreign threats near or far.  Soviet missiles lasted 25 days on Cuban soil, and left after the threat of global nuclear conflagration. Secretly, the US pulled its own missiles from Turkey and southern Italy as the deal clincher.

For our Nebraskan farmer, she does not wish for Zelenskyy to become another client-politician. The modernist Barbara Hepworth sculpture memorial to Dag Hammarskjöld would leave many heartland voters unmoved. A symbol of unreality that permeates notions of world government. Apostles of the Enlightenment are privately contemplating how an illiterate and know-nothing political-base might just, after all, possess acute wisdom, born of life, rather than the academy.

The turn against globalisation, and its beneficial aspects, is not dissimilar to the vehement rejection of the more enduring fruits of the British Empire. Those elements of pre-WWI British power which enabled for some an idyll, including those whose dedication was marked by love, are no longer remembered. What is recalled of British involvement today, are the parts which, as Anthony Nutting, senior Foreign Office official in Anthony Eden’s government, would term, the ‘sordid conspiracies and political insanities’, such as the Suez Crisis.

Britain and France lost their empires amidst turmoil. Nutting resigned over the Suez debacle. An act which guaranteed his isolation. Few resign today as they know it is the end of both friendships and careers, as Nutting found. Rather, many plod on with repeated resurrections, compounding a moribund politics.

What might serve as a brake on the US’s rush to economic nationalism, is their reliance on imports: semi-conductors, metals, pharmaceuticals, plus an international network of military bases, integrated supplier networks, transport infrastructure, storage, and banking links. All equate to a functioning Western model that an isolationist America might send back into a pre-war world of trade bottlenecks strangling global market activity.

If an emboldened EU does get its act together, the US’s new transactional foreign policy might unwittingly boost the Euro as an international currency. If Europe takes the lead in NATO, then Japan and South Korea might seek deeper partnership with it. And it might make sense for Britain’s nuclear deterrent to further link with France in a continent-wide defence policy.

In terms of statecraft, President Zelenskyy is wise to wear his Oval Office drubbing as a gift. Be true to your humiliation, to borrow from Albert Camus. Wear it well, like a suit. Machiavelli, largely misinterpreted, offers that virtù (virtue) sits at the heart of statecraft, and any senior leader can, with suitable patience, convert their scars. There is potential to win over doubters who are newly sympathetic to your wounds, if not pleased you have crashed to earth.

Humiliation is not far from humility, which is the ground zero of enduring symbolism. And symbols run on eternal fuel, travelling around the world on your behalf. Recent poll ratings show Ukrainians maintaining substantial support for their president, and his grizzled pursuit of this miserable war.

For the US team, impatience risks them being despised for no reason. High principle still matters and if the state’s survival is not threatened, do not burn voter capital if you can help it. Markets thought the threat of tariffs were purely a negotiation lever. Since pressing the button some growth forecasts have been cut. Some analysts predict recession.

But like the pupil brought up on facts in Dickens’ Hard Times who says to Mr Gradgrind, “But surely you must know that self-interest is the law of life”, the core of this debate is the question of whether America will forget that all life in truth is a ‘complete and unlimited dependence of each of us upon the other’. Its vaunted position is the result of its constant curiosity and collaboration.

This very public Oval Office spat steers the Trump-Vance doctrine into a form of realpolitik. And the West has not seen pragmatic realism like this since Margaret Thatcher, Willy Brandt, Charles de Gaulle, and Richard Milhous Nixon.

Trickier is a sense of nihilistic patrimonialism. Operating a royal household, me and my mates, can be a blunt petulant counterforce to the state’s overshadowing bureaucratic apparatus. And it involves firing the competent, and packing your court with sycophants who are pleased to be there.

Quixotic moods mean US policy appears referent on some days to pragmatism, and on others to significant unpredictably, and this further troubles the state’s stability. It is too early to tell. The damage to state architecture is unknown. It is better if the unpredictability operates like a carnival (rule disruptor), rolling through town, and at some point, heading out the other side, allowing the streets to be restored to working order.

The West is stuck in a mire of regulation. If the USA does not wish to destroy its moral authority, take the carnival float through town, make necessary adjustments, but retain the intellectual capital within its institutions. If you smash them, it might be some time before institutional learning is restored. Business leaders think in terms of excellence cultures, but bureaucracies are sub-optimal by design.

And social strata is regularly re-shaped, but not always for the long-term good. The English ruling-class decayed steadily, its idle-rich marrying the entrepreneurial arriviste, and slowly disappeared, taking with it some of the aesthetic values needed for political judgement. As odd as that sounds. Flat meritocratic societies lack the repositories of social capital that are needed to be passed on faithfully to the next generation. America took the keys of global power about two years into the WWII, stepping over Britain’s bankrupt and bombed-out corpse. It was always going to happen.

In the realm of hegemonic stability, it is assumed we have moved from the bi-polarity of a US-Soviet balance of power, onto an unassailable US unipolarity over the past 20 years. But post-Iraq administrations have preferred strategic drift. With a vague notion the West will glide into a materialist utopia by itself. That institutions will replicate their values automatically. It is possible that future notions of bi or multi-polar worlds no longer applies.

Under a non-polar world of inter-relating global institutions, there is a heartland fear that Washington will slide into just another former locus of power. A has-been, like London and Rome. American voters’ resistance to ceding dominance to liberal-progressive globocrats leaves the stage vacant for a world led by a handful of power-brokers. Visible strong-men and women, locatable, and channelling heartland emotions and intuitions. If the good society is the sum of its intuitions, they will not be embodied by the rootless transnational bureaucrat. Dislocated officialdom is undemocratic. 

In America’s fight with global communism, much turned out to be shadow boxing. Cold War I was fought via proxy hot wars. But much was hitting and missing. In Vietnam the communist insurgency in the north turned out to be Vietnamese nationalists, fighting for their homeland rather than international socialism. There was no grand communist alliance, but rather a chimera.

Such huge misreading is down to paranoia. But in Cold War II, there is a very real alliance: Russia, North Korea, China and Iran. The Ukraine war is a basis for hard military-industrial co-operation between this bloc of power, who are entirely locatable on the map, unlike McCarthy’s ‘Reds under the bed’. Will America’s emergent doctrine of realpolitik and its transactional methodology be emotionally capable of understanding this threat?

In the UK the Brexit-behemoth awoke from hibernation in reaction to the Blair-Cameron-governments’ globalised-city-finance-public-sector-model. Politics has descended into a stoogeocracy, where genuine leadership is a threat to in-group power. Britain’s drift, morally and intellectually, showed up no more cruelly than within its attempt to monetise its Post Office retail network. Local post offices in the UK are regarded by some as second only to the local parish church, and pub, for community cohesion. The UK government’s desire to modernise required a new computer system. When anomalies in branch account balancing emerged the Post Office ended up prosecuting over 900 postmasters, with a Public Inquiry hearing that at the root of discrepancies were software errors rather than skulduggery. Regarded by UK politicians as the ‘UK’s most widespread miscarriage of justice’, journalist Nick Wallis said this public sector run institution was “stuffed to the gills with lifers, plodders and gormless apparatchiks inexplicably promoted into positions way beyond their ability.”

This ugly injustice points to under-performing institutions led by weakened governments and weaker politicians. And globalised liberal democracy has been costly in the minds of Mr & Mrs Ordinary-Tax-Payer in the UK. £800bn in taxes to bail bankers, £49bn on Iraq-Afghan Wars of Enforced Democracy (on countries that did not want Starbucks on every corner), the all-hours-working-to-buy-a-box-plus-child-in-a-for-profit-sub-standard-nursery, capped off by the self-loathing anti-Britain-anti-Western-everything narratives, adding to perceptions in heartland communities in the UK that the EU was part of the malaise. How the Trump-Vance turn against supranationalism will bring new accountability to institutions is unknown as transformational change is deeply complex.

In the US, heartland voters may be ready to accept market turmoil as a price it wishes to pay for re-balancing. Many are enjoying DOGE’s chainsaw, even if it will in reality yield limited results in deficit shrinkage. Slashing overheads is the accountant’s soft target, but when plates start crashing much gets quietly reinstated at a later date. Some unfiring has already begun.

This shifting moral terrain shows up as particularly muddy with Europe letting Ukraine and Russia’s blood and treasure disappear into the bottom of Somme-like trench warfare. The generals say they prefer to go into battle with a 10-1 advantage, and certainly not less than 3-1. Since neither side in the war has any advantage, the ‘do something’ option becomes a moral necessity. Realpolitik means Zelenskyy’s blushes in The Oval Office are momentary when an ‘endless war’ eviscerates a generation of young, and not so young, Ukrainians and Russians for no purpose whatsoever.  

And Russia’s deaths in Ukraine are staggering. Unsustainable. So why let them off the hook. Well, America’s economy is also not as strong as it looks. The US debt pile reaches to the moon. They are spending more in interest than their defence budget. Slash America Inc.’s monster spending on any wasteful secondary entanglements or it will implode economically. America is a debtor nation historically, but now it is a long way into the red-zone.

Here in Britain, we are comfortable for the moment to let Canada take one for the team. The popcorn tub is being shared as Prime Minister Mark Carney returns serve to his neighbours. We might be next. Do not upset POTUS is the current mood. If we just look at Britain’s nuclear deterrent, although it is “operationally independent” it “[relies] on a 67-year-old agreement under which America shares its nuclear technology and infrastructure with Britain”, unlike France, which is a “wholly national endeavour”.

But this is early days for all analysts. Every morning a new eye-gouging headline contradicts the previous day’s fragile trend. Leadership strategists like me are currently scanning their history books, biographies and just about every genre, for meaningful context. Two obvious entities emerge, NATO’s birth, and the rehabilitated legacy of Richard Nixon.

It is cold comfort to recall that Britain after WWII split its factory production capacity in half to fund re-arming, and to play lead partner (second fiddle) in the newly formed NATO alliance. Britain was factory to the world, its order books full, but gradually customers drifted away frustrated, as we switched to rebuilding a huge army to protect a dying Empire’s trade routes. It took Britain some time, possibly 70 years, to accept it was a bit part actor in geo-politics. The peace dividend has meant successive governments have let the UK army shrink to half its Cold War complement, bringing into question home defence let alone projecting power into the far reaches of Europe. UK defence spend rising to 3% by 2030 is essential if we are serious about NATO’s Article 5, armed response.

Newly fragile due to America’s resurgent exceptionalism, NATO now needs Britain as its champion. NATO’s raison d’être was the Soviet Union’s glowering presence. If America rehabilitates Russia into the West’s good books, this further calls Article 5 into doubt. In fact, it calls into question the array of international agreements whose ligaments formed around a shared Western worldview.

The last time such a grand scale balance of hegemonic power needed a jolt from Western leadership, Richard Nixon jumped on a plane to meet Chairman Mao and invite China in from the cold after 25 years of diplomatic non-communication. If we think it is a lot to swallow for the West to rehabilitate Vladimir Putin, Mao’s Great Leap Forward took the lives of up to 45 million people. Isolation is logical but often ineffective. Nixon’s, and more so, Henry Kissinger’s realpolitik looked past ideology and values towards the potential of reduced global threats. China’s hybrid economy, the blending of state-planning and market apparatus was the result, with the West fully embedded industrially, if not politically. This appears as the escape path for Putin, as galling as that is to swallow.

Importantly, Britain is not as politically polarised as America. Our constitution might be haemorrhaging due to successive governments’ erosion of parliamentary accountability, but we are still talking to each other with sufficient respect. So, wheeling in Homeric cyclopes to bludgeon one side or the other is unnecessary. That the Trump II team has not dissembled one jot, might give some relief. What you see is what you get. Everything externalised and nothing hidden. A world governed by transactional pragmatics, realpolitik, is with us for some time.

We get the leaders we deserve. Once Trump II has achieved a rebalancing of American interests, what next? And, if MAGA’s instincts prove more consequential to history than the globocrats’, and Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize, then let us all eat out in Canada before the Maple syrup gets renamed Trump treacle!